Forecasting the Year Ahead with Sanchit Goyal

Every category manager writes a forecast. Most write a number and hope. This session shows you how to build one you can defend, line by line, in any review.

It teaches the full driver-based method, worked end to end on a real business unit with real numbers:

1. The engine: why GMV = Units x ASP, and why growth combines, it does not add
2. Units: how to split same-store from new selection, and why that split is the most important number in your plan
3. ASP: why blended ASP moves on mix, not price, and how to explain that in a room
4. RPC: how price cuts drive volume, and how to build that link into the plan rather than guessing it
5. New selection: how to size it from unmet demand, not from hope
6. Phasing: how to spread the year on the real monthly shape without double-counting one-time events
7. Scenarios: how to present conservative, base and aggressive without it looking like you hedged everything
8. The review: how to walk a leadership team through the number, what they will attack first, and how to get ahead of it

It also covers the traps most plans fall into: smearing one growth rate across every vertical, treating ASP as an average, basing on the annual total instead of the run-rate, and building a number with no supply or budget plan behind it.

Comes with a working Excel model built on real Home BU data, so every concept has a number behind it, not just a framework.

Built for category managers and buyers who own a P&L and have to defend it in front of leadership at least once a year.

You walk away able to build a bottom-up plan that reconciles to a top-down ask, decompose the growth into drivers you can name, and present it in a review without flinching.